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For Now, Jobs Remain Scarce — But an Aging Population and the Recession’s Aftermath Are Poised to Create Widespread Labor Shortages and an Historic “Seller’s Market” for Skilled Workers
American workers have endured six years of depleted wealth, stagnant wages, and general insecurity.
But their fortunes are about to change, according to a surprising new study from The Conference Board.
From a Buyer’s Market to a Seller’s Market predicts unemployment in the United States — currently 6.7% and falling rapidly — will reach its “natural rate” of 5.5% by late-2015.
The decline will continue well past this benchmark; during the next 15 to 20 years, U.S. unemployment may even dip below 3.8%, the lowest rate recorded since the 1960s.
“While our conclusions may seem unlikely today, they rest on a simple fact: nearly all baby boomers will be out of the job market by 2030,” said Gad Levanon, director of macroeconomic research at The Conference Board and a co-author of the report.
“As working-age population expansion slows to a crawl, even modest job growth should steadily tighten the labor supply and force wages higher. In the short run, this will be good news for workers. But it could also become a major handicap on U.S. growth and competitiveness, which we must prepare for now.”
Among the report’s other findings on widespread labor shortages:
Future research from The Conference Board will investigate the impact of retiring baby boomers on specific occupations in great detail.
Source: The Conference Board