How HR Can Prepare for the Next Recession

​Nearly 9 million Americans lost their jobs during the last recession. The unemployment rate peaked at 10 percent. More than 170,000 small businesses closed. And it could happen again—maybe this year.Recessions are less predictable than taxes but as inevitable as death. Business cycles tend to run for seven or eight years, and the most recent economic downturn—the Great Recession—ended in June 2009. The chance of another slump this year is 20 or 25 percent, according to Gregory Daco, head of U.S. macroeconomics for Oxford Economics, a U.K.-based economic forecasting group. (The odds of the pendulum swinging the other way and the economy growing at a higher rate are roughly the same, he says.)

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