SHRM Report: HR Professionals Expect A Little Hiring, Less Firing In October 2012

Manufacturing workers have the longest job tenure of any industry at 6 years with the same employer.

Manufacturing workers have the longest job tenure of any industry at 6 years with the same employer.

Another glimmer of positive news on the jobs front came this week from the Society for Human Resource Management’s monthly survey of HR professionals’ hiring plans.

About three in 10 manufacturing and service-sector companies plan to hire in October 2012 according to a report from the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM).

The SHRM LINE Report—Leading Indicators of National Employment—provides a snapshot of month-ahead hiring expectations. The Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report analyzes past-month hiring trends.

The report also shows that service-sector hiring will rise by a net of 4.9 points and manufacturing-sector hiring will rise by a net of 4.2 points on annual basis (comparing October 2012 with October 2011).

Respondents include HR professionals from 500 service-sector companies and 500 manufacturing companies.

A  Look At Details From HR Professionals Survey:

  • In the manufacturing sector, 49.8% of HR professionals said their company plans to hire workers. Another 15.2% will cut jobs, leaving a positive net of 34.6%.
  • The remaining 35% are expected to hold steady with no hiring or layoffs in October 2012.
  • In the service sector, 40.4% of companies will hire while 6.5% will fire. That leaves net hiring of 33.9%.
  • The remaining 53.1% report no planned staffing changes in October 2012.

HR Professionals Survey: Hiring Still Slow

“Though more than one in three manufacturers and service-sector companies say they will add jobs in October, the pace of hiring in recent months has not been enough to make much of a dent in the unemployment rate,” said Jennifer Schramm, GPHR, and manager of workplace trends and forecasting at SHRM.

Still, 39% of HR professionals are “optimistic” and 6% are “very optimistic” about job growth during the fourth quarter of 2012 according to the SHRM Jobs Outlook Survey, or JOS.

Twenty-seven percent are neither optimistic nor pessimistic as they go about business during the current economy.\

Click here to view the full JOS report, SHRM Jobs Outlook Survey (JOS)

LINE features the only national monthly employment indices capturing HR professionals’ month-ahead hiring expectations and past-month recruiting difficulty.

The report also includes a new-hire compensation index and an index of exempt and non-exempt job vacancies.

According to LINE, recruiting difficulty rose 6.4 points in the manufacturing sector and fell 3.8 points in the service sector, comparing September 2012 to September 2011.

A closer look at the recruiting-difficulty index shows:

In the manufacturing sector, 17.7% of HR professionals reported increased difficulty in finding workers while 1.6% found recruiting talent to be less difficult, comparing September 2012 to September 2011.

The remaining 80.7% reported no change in recruiting difficulty in manufacturing.

In the service sector, 19.5% of HR professionals said it was more difficult to recruit workers. Meanwhile, 11.7% found it less difficult, comparing September 2012 to September 2011. Nearly two-thirds, 68.8%, reported no change in service-sector recruiting difficulty.

“Following the pattern of previous months—and unsurprising given the still slow job market—new-hire compensation didn’t budge much in September in either sector,” Schramm said.

The number of companies increasing new-hire pay rose by 1.3 points in the manufacturing. The number of service-sector businesses increasing new-hire pay fell 2.8 points.

Highlights of SHRM LINE year-over-year findings:

Employment Expectations Manufacturing Service
In October, the hiring rate will rise in both sectors compared with a year ago. +4.2. points +4.9 points
Recruiting Difficulty    
In September, recruiting difficulty increased in manufacturing and fell in services compared with a year ago. +6.4 points -3.8 points
New-Hire Compensation    
In September, the rate of increase for new-hire compensation rose minimally in manufacturing and fell slightly in services compared with a year ago.  +1.3 points  -2.8 points

Source: SHRM Leading Indicators of National Employment

Click here to read the full SHRM LINE Report: and click the “Latest LINE Report” button. Follow SHRM Research on Twitter @SHRM_Research.

The SHRM employment expectations index describes the same time period referenced approximately one month later in the employment situation report from  the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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