US expansion will continue into next year despite rising prices, supply chain bottlenecks

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November 18, 2021

The US economic expansion will continue into next year though headwinds will remain, according to analysis of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index. It rose to a reading of 118.3 in October, up 0.1% from September and 0.7% from August.

“The US [Leading Economic Index] rose sharply in October, suggesting the current economic expansion will continue into 2022 and may even gain some momentum in the final months of this year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at The Conference Board.

Ozyildirim noted the gains were widespread among indicators; however, rising prices and supply chain bottlenecks pose challenges and aren’t expected to dissipate until well into 2022.

The Conference Board forecast US gross domestic product to increase at a 5.0% annualized rate in the fourth quarter before moderating to a rate of 2.6% in the first quarter — still a historically robust rate.

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