Forecasters lower GDP growth estimate for remainder of year, Q1 of next

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November 15, 2021

The US economy is looking weaker now than it did in August, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

US gross domestic product is expected to grow at an annual rate 4.6% in this quarter, down from 5.2% in the previous forecast. For full-year 2021, forecasters now believe GDP will increase 5.5% with full-year 2022 growth estimated at 3.9%. Previously, they had forecast growth of 6.1% and 4.4%, respectively.

On the other hand, GDP is slated to increase at an annual rate of 4.0% in the second quarter of next year, a higher forecast than the previous estimate.

In addition, forecasters were more upbeat on the unemployment rate. This quarter’s rate is now estimated at 4.5%, down from 4.9% in the previous estimate. First-quarter 2021 unemployment is estimated to be 4.3%, down from the previous estimate of 4.6%.

When it comes to jobs, however, forecasters lowered their estimates through the second quarter of next year. Average monthly gains for this quarter were lowered to 469,400 from the previous estimate of 508,800.

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