- Data over the month showed slower employment growth and some easing of inflation pressures.
- Output in Q2 moved above its pre-pandemic level. Growth was driven by consumption, with inventories, federal government spending, and net exports all drags on growth.
- Personal income increased in July, helped by the first round of Child Tax Credit payments. Compensation rose while proprietors’ income fell. Higher income and only slightly higher consumer spending caused saving as a percent of personal income to rise
- The saving rate was well above its pre-pandemic level.
- Payroll employment growth slowed in August and the unemployment rate fell.
- Core PCE inflation over the year reached 3.6% in July.
- The 10-year Treasury yield was around 1.4% at the beginning of September. The S&P 500 stock index was up 22% year-to-date on September 3. The market-implied federal funds rate path shifted up and steepened between August 3 and September 3.
Download the September 2021 Snapshot