Employment Trends Index Up 5% in October From Last Year

Glimmers of hope are appearing for job seekers as economic data are showing a positive trends.

Business forecasting group, The Conference Board  reports that its Employment Trends Index increased in October to 101.92, up from the revised figure of 101.20 in September. The October figure is up 5% from the same month a year ago.

Gad Levanon

“The increase in the Employment Trends Index in October, and the upward revisions for September and August, signal a slightly more optimistic outlook for jobs,” says Gad Levanon, director of macroeconomic research for The Conference Board. “However, given the deterioration in the confidence of consumers, businesses and investors in recent months, we think that the economy is simply not strong enough to deliver more than 125,000 jobs a month.”

Six out of the eight components of the ETI were positive during October, according to the report. The improving indicators include The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey “Jobs Hard to Get,” Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry, Part-Time Workers for Economic Reasons, Job Openings, and Industrial Production.

The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:
•    Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get” (The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey)
•    Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
•    Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
•    Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
•    Part-Time Workers for Economic Reasons (BLS)
•    Job Openings (BLS)
•    Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)
•    Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)