Conference Board Employment Trends Index Down

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index decreased in September 2011 to 100.95, down from the revised figure of 101.37 in August. The September figure is up 4.4% from the same month a year ago.

Gad Levanon

“Despite the somewhat better than expected employment numbers released on Friday, 07 Oct. 2011,the decline in the Employment Trends Index in September suggests that weak job growth is likely to continue for the rest of 2011,” Says Gad Levanon, director of macroeconomic research at The Conference Board. “Even as the economy remains slow going into the next year, we do not expect a major acceleration in layoffs, because employers have kept their workforce quite lean since the 2008/09 recession.”

This month’s weakness in the ETI was driven by negative contributions from six out of the eight components. The weakening indicators include The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey“Jobs Hard to Get,” Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Part-Time Workers for Economic Reasons, Industrial Production, and Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales.

The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

• Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get” (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey)
• Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
• Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
• Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• Part-Time Workers for Economic Reasons (BLS)
• Job Openings (BLS)
• Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)
• Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Based in Washington, D.C., The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest.